GLOBAL AND CURRENT AFFAIRS

 

TOPICAL DISCUSSIONS

 

 

THE TAIWAN MATTER

Outline Text and Fuller Discussion Text

[06/12/2024]

   

For now, I shall have to upload just A VERY SIMPLIFIED VERSION, owning to website scripting issues that, most frustratingly - and supiciously - have not yet been resolved.

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I prognosticate a virtually IMMEDIATE withdrawal of Chinese forces from the immediate vicinity of Taiwan.

I prognosticate that China would withdraw their forces from the Island virtually immediately and peace would return to back to that part of the world like it has not been for generations

If matter were internationally adjudicated on and if Taiwan acquired the VERY BEST LAWYERS, this would be ALL that a Chinese Lawyer could/would say in response to Taiwan's argument

WE HAVE ABSOLUTLEY NOTHING WE NEED TO ADD, YOUR HONOUR

The Taiwan argument would place them in this standing.

If Taiwan acquired the best lawyer possible and the matter was INTERNATIONALLY ADJUDICATED ON, TAIWAN'S claim to the Island/s would place them firmly in an UNDISPUTED.... THIRD PLACE;

[BEHIND BOTH, CHINA AND THE FORMOSANS].

And this would be Taiwan's percentage chance of overall success

ABSOLUTLEY, TOTALLY AND PRECISELY ZERO PERCENT

These are the Reasons why

Both, the Formosans and the Chinese would be able to sit back and watch the Taiwanese present their circular argument that, all on it's own, systematically de-legitimised their own claim to the Islands.  The Formosans could then use half of that argument against Taiwan whilst China could use the other half of that argument against Taiwan.

Why I prognosticate a withdrawal of Chinese forces.

The Taiwanese people would ultimately be in MOURNING and would need a period to come to terms with the fact that they HAVE ABSOLUTLEY NO LEGITIMATE ARGUMENT or claim to those Islands.

One PARTY could not bring forward A SINGLE VALID ARGUMENT over the other's argument

It WOULD SIMPLY NOT BE POSSIBLE FOR CHINA TO DEFEND THEIR CLAIM OVER TAIWAN'S CLAIM ANY BETTER THAN THE TAIWANESE WOULD DO ALL ON THEIR OWN; even if China wanted to.

ONE PARTY SIMPLY DOES NOT HAVE A LEG TO STAND ON.

There is simply NOT A SINGLE ARGUMENT THAT THE TAIWANESE COULD BRING AGAINST THE CHINESE THAT THE FORMOSANS COULD NOT THEN BRING AGAINST THE TAIWANESE [and again, vice versa for China]; THUS, Neither of these two other sides would even need to prepare an argument at all.

Taiwan's complaints against China [in context].

Taiwan may be complaining about acts of aggression and/or intimidation from mainland China, but the truth of the matter is that they have VERY MUCH BEEN THE BULLIES, THE INTIMIDATORS AND THE AGGRESSORS over the course of their chequered history of 'OCCUPATION' of those Islands; arguably [likely, categorically], to a FAR FAR GREATER EXTENT than anything that they have ever been subjected to by  the People's Republic of China [PRC] of mainland China.

My suggestions on the period following any realisation of an agreed/acquiesced resolution

I personally would suggest the Taiwanese people, after an international agreement in principle by their government, be given a year or so [a reasonable period of time] to come to term with these facts all on their own, in their own time; in the cold light of day, and then, to return back to the table when they are ready when they are ready for the formalities [of a timely transition].  That does not, of course, prevent China and the Formosans from entering in to discussions, though again [after an agreement in principle], I would suggest they wait AT LEAST A QUARTER [of a year] out of respect for the Taiwanese people and their difficult mental readjustment to this very new [BUT VERY BLATANT] reality.

The need for the U.S. to step back from this entire matter [which essentially has always been a purely domestic matter]

The U.S. government would HAVE TO COME TO TERMS with the fact that they NOT ONLY CREATED THE SITUATION but moreover, have continued thereafter to DEFEND A TOTALLY BASELESS CLAIM TO THOSE ISLANDS; INDEED, the likes of Hawaii, Guam & Alaska would have to be granted independence LONG BEFORE they would have any grounds to defend the Taiwanese claim to those Islands. 

Thus, not even the U.S. should contemplate opposing any such agreement in principle [well, at least, not 'In Theory' or in good faith, though this has clearly not always been the U.S. governments strong point; on this occasions - citing apparent events in the build up to the current crisis in Ukraine, from the newly independent Ukraine to the current conflict therein - UKRAINE - link].

The 'questionable' internationally agreed status of Taiwan subsequent to World War II

One certainly has to question the true reasons and motives behind the official status (and ownership) of Taiwan consequent and subsequent to the Treaty of San Francisco; i.e. the essentially inconclusive and ambiguous nature status that resulted thereafter; especially given that given that this will have suited the U.S. government of the time, on account of the fact that they were the effective owners prior thereto.
That is to say that given that Japan (who officially controlled Taiwan at that time) also happened, rather conveniently, to be under U.S. occupation at that time of that signing, this would then have ensured that the U.S. was best position (among ALL NATIONS GLOBALLY) to benefit from this new and inconclusive state of Taiwan [which didn't even recognise the ROC as its legal owners AT ANY TIME IN HISTORY].

 

The quite apparently ambiguous U.S. position on Taiwan

Moreover, a 1955 U.S. article [The International Legal Status of Formosa] explicitly states that the then President of 'The Republic of China' [ROC] Chiang Kai-shek had/has NO CLAIM to the Island (as a mere fugitive quartering his army - incidentally, all as exiles); seemingly, open acknowledgement of the global/international view of the time.

Yet, it is this ownership that the U.S. now seems to be choosing to defend; more than likely, a hangover of the then Cold War against communism; and/or quite possibly, because the inconclusive, ambiguous nature thereof could no longer serve whatever purpose it may have been initially been intended to serve; certainly, not with the then newly Communist People's Republic of China having expressly staked their interest (arguably, "clear rightful claim") to these 'effectively / technically / officially stateless' Islands.

A history that can certainly be described as being somewhat "Chequered"

Western nations regarded the ROC government as a repressive state right up until the 1970, and this government was responsible for the slaughter of thousands of the original inhabitants of Taiwan in the period known as 'The White Terror', with 140,000 people imprisoned, executed and/or both, declaring Martial Law on the Islands for that whole period; effectively four decades long.

And on should also note that they did their own fair share of invading of foreign lands in the 1950's, in Burma and in Thailand, though with only brief success.

The Nancy Pelosi Matter

Nancy Pelosi DID NOT VISIT THE FORMOSANS; just as she has not visited the indigenous inhabitants of Hawaii with regards to their right to sovereignty of their own Islands.
That visit was HIGHLY ANTAGONISTIC, IRRESPONSIBLE and UNHELPFUL.

It is my belief that ALL PARTIES CONCERNED would VERY QUICKLY arrive at the same conclusions.

If the Formosans mounted a revolt in the southern region of that Island, taking over any Taiwanese bases and mounted a firm challenge against the Taiwanese military, and then, some 'random' third party came along to provide the Formosans with military support [i.e. the Chinese Military, say] in defence of the Formosan's FORCEFULLY-SEIZED territory such that they held on to that territory for a couple of generations, would the Taiwanese recognise the Formosan claim to that southern region? [Yet another argument that Taiwan simply cannot win, either way];  Or would they not STILL BELIEVE that it should be returned back to them?

 

 

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